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杨国强外国行 碧桂园协助进行香港(Hong Kong)财团7.7亿元登入London

华宝添益占有率下二十一日狠抓逾两成

China Property SylphyT

Can China’s property market sustain the unprecedented levels of demand
that led to annual salesof >1.6bn sqm in 2017? While many investors
are skeptical, we expect ongoing healthy demand(1.5-1.6bn sqm) in the
medium term after analyzing overall demographics and a data set of
205prefecture cities (including 173 T3/4 cities). The findings in this
report support our aboveconsensusestimates and give us greater
confidence in our top-picks: Vanke, Country Garden,Future Land, Aoyuan
and KWG.

    Evergrande has been shifting its focus to first and second-tier
cities. In terms of contractsales in third-tier cities, 75% of sales
revenue comes from real demand. The companywill benefit from rising
market share concentration.

    2) The Chinese central government is encouraging a higher proportion
of rental housingsupply in key cities with net population inflows, which
might slow developers’ assetturnover and increase their capital
allocation to the rental housing business. Given thatrental housing
generally has a much longer payback cycle compared with the
residentialproperty sales business, the newly issued policies for rental
housing might hurtdevelopers’ profit margins and ROE over the next 3-5
years, in our view.

    Population outflow over past decade, but more migrant workers now
returning

    Buy undervalued industry leaders such as COLI and CR Land (1109 HK,
Buy)China’s property market is seeing ongoing market share
concentration, which shouldbenefit the big industry leaders. Vanke (2202
HK, Underperform) is trading at 2.0x 2016NBV, while COLI and CR Land are
trading at 1.3x 2016 NBV and 1.4x 2016 NBVrespectively, clearly
undervalued.

    Declining residential property transaction volume in 2H17; land
prices likely torise further Given ongoing monetary tightening and a
relatively high base in 1H17, thedeclining transaction figures in July
were in line with our previous estimates. Accordingto China NBS, total
residential GFA sold increased 13.5% YoY to 648m sqm in 1H17.

    Further market consolidation with more big players entering low-tier
markets

    Gemdale P&I (535 HK, Buy) The company believes that overall property
investmentgrowth should continue at around the same level in the second
half of the year amid arise in new project launches, land purchases and
new starts GFA. GFA sold hit a recordhigh in 1H17, so the company sees
limited growth in the next 2-3 years. Leadingdevelopers will achieve
sales growth through M&A, increasing market share and ASPgrowth. Ongoing
restrictive policies may last for the next 12 months. Demand forproperty
in third/fourth-tier cities will not be sustainable given limited local
demand andsupportive industries. Land prices will continue to rise for
some years in all major citiesdue to the limited land supply. Total GFA
will reach a record high in 2017, which it doesnot see as sustainable in
China’s cyclical property market. Developers will post goodearnings
growth in 2017-18 on the back of strong contract sales performance in
2015-16. Most small developers will be forced out of market due to a
lack of capital, poorbranding and limited operating scale.

    Key risks: 1) Third- and fourth-tier cities were the main growth
drivers for China’sproperty market during 1H17. Given tightening
monetary supply, a relatively high salesbase in 2016 and 1H17, and the
lack of consistent owner-occupier housing demand, theChinese property
market is likely to move into a new down-cycle in 2018.

    Read through for major developers in China

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